Scratchers Strategy

Posted on 3/27/2022 by admin

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Glossary of Statistics Provided:

I am sure most of you have played scratch off lottery tickets before, sometimes they are called 'scratchers.' They are lottery tickets that you scratch with a coin to reveal a prize (or not). With scratch-off lottery tickets, you win cash instantly! In most states, you can cash any prize up to $500-$600 at any location that sells lottery tickets.

Isn't playing the lottery a fool's errand?

Whether you're buying 10 at a time or taking the whole roll home with you, keeping your.
Scratchers Here! If you have a winning ticket for which the prize-redemption period expires during the Governor's declared state of emergency, the Lottery will validate and pay the prize as long as you file your claim by mail or in person at a Customer Service Center no later than 30 days after Virginia's state of emergency order has been lifted.
Every time I go into a supermarket, gas station, or a liquor store, I see people in their mid-forties massively buying scratchers (or scratch-offs if you're not Californian). I didn't invent the word nor did I know California Lottery has that much pride in coining the word to scratch-offs.

Yes, most of the ways that people play it. They play with no knowledge of the odds, the true number of winning tickets available, and no concept of the statistical likelihood of winning. They turn to myths, superstitions, false assumptions, and idealistic beliefs about the 'best' ways to play the games.

There are no 100% guarantees. However, armed with more accurate data and a list of games with the best statistical probabilities, you can improve your odds of winning.

Where did the data come from?

The original data came from the Virginia Lottery website (http://www.valottery.com). The Virginia Lottery commission posts updated data daily. Each retailer scans the ticket barcode into a machine to determine if it is a winning ticket, so the Virginia Lottery's system tracks the scratcher tickets in real time and updates the website each day. We've taken that data and analyzed it to produce something you can use when trying to maximize your odds of winning . . . or at least not losing as much.

How were the statistics calculated?

We started by calculating the total number of tickets in circulation using the initial odds of winning any prize given on the Virginia Lottery multiplied by the total number of initial prizes. For example, if the odds of winning a prize were 4.25 to 1, and the total number of prizes remaining were 1,125,000, then the total number of scratcher tickets is 4.25 x 1,125,000 = 4,781,250. Using the data on the website also allowed us to calculate other statistics, such as the average probability of winning, the standard deviation, the percent of prizes remaining, and the expected value of each scratcher ticket. (See the glossary below for a more detailed explanation of each of the statistics provided on this site.) We then used these statistics to rank them.

How was this ranking was compiled?

We ranked the scratchers according to certain groups of statistics:

1) Rank by Best Probability of Winning Any Prize

2) Rank by Best Probability of Winning a Profit Prize

3) Rank by Least Expected Losses

4) Rank by Most Available Prizes

5) Rank by Best Change in Probabilities

These ranking groups are the average rankings by each statistic included in that group (see details below). We then ranked the scratchers by their average of these rankings. The home page ranks a scratcher first by its ranking in its cost group (e.g., among $1 scratchers), and then by its overall ranking among all scratchers.

What's the best strategy?

Scratchers are printed and sold to retailers in packs of 20, 40, 100, or 200 tickets, depending on the ticket cost (see page 6 of the retailer manual). We assume that the prizes are distributed randomly throughout the packs, and that the frequency of each prize corresponds to the percentage remaining in circulation. Given the statistical laws of a normal distribution, purchasing a string of tickets from a single pack that is equal to the odds of winning plus three standard deviations is 99.7% likely to turn up at least one winning ticket.

For example, if the odds of winning are 4 to 1, and we add to that three standard deviations of 1.25, that means that buying 8 tickets is 99.7% likely to result in a prize. (See more details below.) All 8 could still be losers, but statistically the likelihood of losing on every single one is very slim. Buying a single ticket here and there is a poor strategy. Either the ticket before or after that purchase could be a winner, so buying several at once--and buying a number in accordance with the current odds--will maximize your chances of winning.

So this strategy will help me win a lot of money, then?

Glossary of Statistics Provided:

Below is a glossary of explanations for the statistics on this site, listed under each ranking group:

Rank by Best Probability of Winning Any Prize

Odds of Any Prize: The odds of winning any of the prizes for that scratcher game, using the latest data on the Virginia Lottery website of the total scratcher tickets remaining divided by the total prizes remaining.
Probability of Any Prize: The total prizes remaining divided by the total scratcher tickets remaining, providing a percentage for the odds of wining any prize.
Odds of Any Prize Plus Three Standard Deviations: Three standard deviations from the mean, added to the mean (i.e., the odds of winning any prize). Given a normal distribution, this number means that per the 65-95-99.7 rule there is a 99.7% likelihood that buy this number of tickets will include at least one prize-winning ticket. For example, if the odds are 4 to 1, and the standard deviation is 1.25, then 4 + 1.25 = 7.75, or rounded up to 8 to 1 odds (because you can't buy a partial ticket). In order words, buying 8 tickets means there is a 99.7% probability that one of those 8 is a winner (though probably only for a prize equal to the cost of the ticket.

Rank by Best Probability of Winning a Profit Prize

Odds of a Profit Prize: This is the same as the odds of any prize, except divides all tickets by only the sum of prizes that exceed the cost of the ticket (i.e., winning means making a profit on the expense of the ticket). For example, if the odds of winning any prize on a $20 ticket is 4.25 to 1, then the odds of winning a prize worth $25 or more might be 5.75 to 1.
Probability of a Profit Prize: This is also the same as the probability of winning any prize, except divides only the sum of prizes great than the ticket cost by all tickets remaining. For example, if the probability of winning any prize with a $20 ticket is 25%, the odds of winning a prize worth $25 or more might be 15%.
Odds of Profit Prize Plus Three Standard Deviations: Three standard deviations for only profit prizes, added to the odds for a profit prize. In this case, buying a corresponding number of tickets means a 99.7% probability of winning a prize worth more than the cost of the ticket. However, this number may be substantially higher; for example, if the odds of any prize plus three standard deviations is 8, then this number may be as high as 12 or 15.

Rank by Least Expected Losses

Expected Value of Any Prize: The 'expected value' (or EV) is often used to determine if Powerball is worth playing. The EV basically determines whether you would come out with any money after purchasing all the tickets to win every prize. We calculated the EV by using the formula '(Prize - Cost) x (Probability of Any Prize)' for each prize amount, and summed the result. If the sum is positive, the scratcher actually makes the most mathematical sense as a good bet. However, know this: the EV is usually negative. Still, purchasing every ticket is an unrealistic strategy - the real strategy is playing the probabilities. We converted the EV into percentages of the ticket cost (e.g. if the EV is $15 for a $20 ticket, we converted the EV to 75%), which allows for cross-scratcher comparisons. The higher the EV, the least likely the probability of losing money.
Expected Value of a Profit Prize: The same as above, except this EV includes only those prizes worth more than the cost of the ticket. Of course, the EV of profit prizes (like stated above, converted to a percentage of the ticket cost) is typically lower than the EV for any prize.

Winning Scratchers Strategy

Rank by Most Available Prizes

Percent of Prizes Remaining: The average of the number of winning tickets in circulation for each prize.
Percent of Profit Prizes Remaining: The average of the number of winning tickets in circulation for those prizes worth more than the cost of the ticket.
Ratio of Decline in Prizes to Decline in Losing Tickets: Sometimes the prizes are claimed faster than the losing tickets, leaving an imbalance with a disproportionate number of losing tickets in circulation. Sometimes, it's the other way around: the losing tickets have been bought at a faster rate than the winning ones, leaving a disproportionate number of prizes in circulation. This imbalance, however, is only very slight. For example, the ratio could be 1.0000002, meaning for every ten million tickets there are two more winning tickets than losing ones.

Ny Lottery Top Prize Report

How To Win Scratchers Every Time

Rank by Best Change in Probabilities

Change in Odds of Any Prize: The percentage change from the initial odds when the scratcher game first started to the most recent odds (as calculated from the number of prizes remaining reported on the Virginia Lottery website). As tickets are purchased, maybe customers purchase a high number of prizes, decreasing the odds of winning. Or vice versa, and the odds improve as customers take losing tickets out of circulation. The amount of change in the odds is very slight. For example, the improvement could be 0.000038% or the decline could be -0.000501%.
Change in Odds of a Profit Prize: The same as above, except calculated using only prizes worth more than the cost of the ticket. Note that the two numbers still correspond exactly.
Change in Probability of Any Prize: The percent change in probability of winning any prize from the initial probability published on the Virginia Lottery website, based on the current number of prizes available.
Change in Probability of a Profit Prize: The percent change in probability of winning a prize worth more than the cost of the scratcher from the initial probability published on the Virginia Lottery website, based on the current number of prizes available.
Change in Expected Value of Any Prize: The change in the EV (as described above) from the initial EV of a scratcher containing any prize.
Change in Expected Value of a Profit Prize: The change in the EV (as described above) from the initial EV of a scratcher containing a prize worth more than the cost of the ticket.

Scratcher Strategy

Lottery Scratchers Strategy

Strategy

Every time I go into a supermarket, gas station, or a liquor store, I see people in their mid-forties massively buying scratchers (or scratch-offs if you're not Californian). I didn't invent the word nor did I know California Lottery has that much pride in coining the word to scratch-offs. Anyways, these players buy their scratchers all over the machine / behind the counter. I don't normally play scratchers and usually but draw games like Mega Millions. With a leap of faith, I try the $5 Monopoly and won $15 on that depressing day! I was hooked with the fascination and wanted to try playing more scratchers, but I made sure to plan well before making the next move.

Not only this applies to all California scratcher games, but you can follow these same steps in your state!

1. Click calottery for all the scratchers games.

2. When you click a scratchers game, you'll see more info about the game such as the price, overall odds, and the odds of winning cash.

Now click on other games and you'll always notice that overall odds is lower than cash odds. You DON'T trust the overall odds because that number is unreliable! What it really means is to give you an idea how much easier it is to win a prize money versus another game. It is the average of all the odds listed in the table on the next step. What you need to concentrate on is the cash odds because you want to know how easy it is to get the money. As of 2013, all scratcher games have cash odds of no lower than 25% (1 in 4).

3. Each game should have this table.

Prizes - The amount of money you can win in this scratcher
Odds 1 in - It's telling the percentage of getting that particular amount. So you have 1 in 10 (10%) chance of winning $15 in this game.
Total # of Winners - The column name sounds a bit confusing but what it really means is how many winners are allowed for the particular prize. Only 37 winners are allowed to win $1,000,000.
Prizes Claimed - These are the winners of that prize.
Prizes Available - These are the prizes left for you in this game.

Notice the prizes claimed are much higher than prizes available. This means that the game now has a harder chance of winning these prizes, too risky to invest money on, and a waste of time. You should steer clear of this scratcher even though the odds sound promising. But I'm not stopping you if you're feeling lucky today.

See Status for dying games.

4. Make your own list with the following advices:

On Status page, look for the games with the highest health percentages. Health higher than 50% is my comfortable ground. It is important that when you step into a lotto retailer, you have confidence knowing that you have a higher chance of winning.
Next, settle a budget. Make sure you have plenty of spend for the excitement, but enough to put food for the family later.
With the list from the first step, eliminate the games with smaller odds. Bad at math? 1/4 is bigger than 1/5 or 25% is bigger than 20%.
Now choose the cheapest, high odds, and healthy game to play!

These games have real life references to games you have played at school or home. For more ease of choices, visit http://www.calottery.com/play/scratchers-games to see which games you have had experiences with and go with your instincts.

5. Do put some faith into the statistics based on the official website. They're accurate and legit! State Lottery do mean serious business; they don't tolerate fraud nor scams.

6. Remember to come back regularly to check the Status of the games and do Step 4 again! Serious players always need to constantly keep watching the status so your money can be better spent! Don't be the last person buying all the LOSER scratchers!

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