• Superbowl Presidential Election Prediction
• Super Bowl Predictions Presidential Election
• Super Bowl Presidential Elections Predictor

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• The 2020 Presidential Election has received a record number of wagers in the United Kingdom.
• American betting platforms do not offer political wagers but the UK estimates $1 billion in bets for the election by the time it’s over.
• The 2020 Super Bowl was estimated to receive $6.8 billion in handle from just US sports bettors but if political betting was allowed, the election could have given the event a run for its money.

WASHINGTON – Election Day is here in the US and gamblers worldwide are wagering on who will win the presidency at a record amount. The number of prop bets available and money being wagered on the election mirrors that of the Super Bowl. But which occasion brings in more handle for bookmakers?

It’s a well-known fact that football is the most gambled on sport in the U.S. and the Super Bowl is the biggest day for action on a single event all year at sportsbooks nationwide.

But the 2020 Presidential Election has brought in so much handle in available markets that one has to ask, is the Super Bowl or the election the bigger betting event. To be fair, the big game happens every year while bettors have to wait every four years to get in on some presidential gambling and that alone could be a reason for its sheer popularity.

The 2020 Presidential Election Vs. The 2020 Super Bowl Numbers

President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are racking up the bets from online sportsbooks located across the pond.

Despite starting as the betting favorite, Trump has been the underdog in this battle for quite some time.

On Tuesday, his odds were set at (+150) while Biden is favored at (-180). But this hasn’t deterred gamblers from betting on the current president to win re-election as 80% of all wagers coming into sportsbooks like BetOnline have recently been put on Trump to win.

The election is expected to have a final tally of nearly $1 billion dollars when all is said and done. The United Kingdom has already made history dubbing the 2020 Presidential Election for the United States their most bet on event to date.

Betfair, a UK based betting platform, has recorded almost 6,700 wagers for Trump totaling $4.83 million and 5,250 bets for Biden at $4.7 million in total for the Democrat.

The biggest wager in the UK was a $1.29 million bet on Biden to win. Bookies in the country have put Biden’s odds of winning the election at 65%. However, betting companies across the globe are astounded by the number of bets being placed on a Trump victory as Biden is so heavily favored by all of them to win.

It’s reminiscent of the 2016 Presidential Election where Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton went head to head with Clinton being favored and Trump somehow beating the odds. Bettors back then also felt as though he would win it. And if he wins re-election, sportsbooks everywhere will be taking huge hits in payouts to the underdog and the influx of wagers he’s received.

With a billion dollars being the figure for the estimated handle on the event, does that beat out the Super Bowl activity seen this past February? One would think it would but no.

While the election has seen record highs in the UK and record highs for general activity in the realm of political betting it’s not eligible to be gambled on at American sportsbooks so it pales in comparison to the Super Bowl’s handle.

With legal sports betting becoming more and more accepted by states across the nation, more gamblers were able to place wagers on the Super Bowl this year than ever before.

It was estimated that $6.8 billion was bet on the Super Bowl nationwide.

That’s almost seven times that of the 2020 Presidential Election and only accounts for US books. But if political betting was available at American books, there is little doubt that it would surpass or at least be just as high as Super Bowl bets because the interest is clearly there.

The Super Bowl had plenty of high rollers placing bets of $500K or more. But for European platforms accepting wagers for the election, that has also attracted high rollers as well, exceeding the $500K mark for single bets in quite a few cases.

“This is a huge market,” said Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at British sports betting and gambling firm GVC. “It is twice as big as 2016, easily making it the biggest political event ever.”

Which Event Trumps The Other?

Gamblers want action for both events, that’s apparent. If it were an equal playing field, the 2020 Presidential Election would skyrocket in handle as the UK and other areas of the world have seen it make records.

But the United States has not yet legalized local markets for political betting, often weighing the pros and cons and so far, the cons outweigh the pros in the eyes of lawmakers.

Based on the numbers at hand, it’s a safe bet that both the Super Bowl and the 2020 Presidential Election have the attention of bettors everywhere as the handle speaks for itself.

If ever the US approves political betting, revenue in the gaming industries across the nation would surge every four years and the country could welcome both high revenue and a new president simultaneously.

Until then, records will likely continue to be set in Europe for the elections while records for the Super Bowl will be set here in the U.S.

News tags: 2020 Presidential Election Betfair Donald Trump Election Day GVC Joe Biden Matthew Shaddick November 3 Super Bowl UK Vote

Christina has been writing for as long as she can remember and does dedicated research on the newly regulated sports betting market. She comes from a family of sports lovers that engage in friendly bets from time to time. During the winter months, you can find Christina baking cookies and beating the entire staff at Mario Kart…the N64 version of course.

The Redskins Rule is a spurious relationship^[1] in which the results of National Football League (NFL) games correlated strongly with the results of subsequent United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, there was a strong correlation between the outcome of the last home game for the Washington Football Team prior to the U.S. presidential election and the outcome of the election: when Washington won, the party of the incumbent president retained the presidency; when Washington lost, the opposition party won. This coincidence was noted by many sports and political commentators, used as a bellwether to predict the results of elections, and held true in every election from 1940 through 2000. Since 2004, the rule appears to have become inverted, with the performance of Washington now forecasting the fate of the challenging party rather than the incumbent. For example, the 2008, 2016 and 2020 victories heralded the elections of President Obama, President Trump, and President Biden, respectively, while the 2004 and 2012 losses were followed up by the incumbent winning a second term.

History[edit]

The Redskins relocated from Boston, Massachusetts to Washington, D.C. in 1937. Since then, there have been 19 presidential elections. In 17 of those, the following rule applied:

If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party's candidate wins.

The Redskins Rule was first noticed prior to the 2000 election by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau.^[2][3][4] That year, the Redskins would begin what would become a four-game losing streak with retrospect to the rule when they lost to the Tennessee Titans. George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in the Electoral College, but lost the popular vote. This would cause problems for the original version of the rule after the 2004 election.^[4]

In 2004 election, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating that the incumbent should have lost. However, President George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Steve Hirdt modified the rule, establishing Redskins Rule 2.0:^[5]

When the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped.

In the election in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote while Bush won the electoral vote, and thereby the revised Redskins Rule was upheld for the 2004 election.

In the 2008 election, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, predicting a win for U.S. Senator from IllinoisBarack Obama over U.S. Senator from ArizonaJohn McCain, because George W. Bush won the popular vote in the previous election.^[6]

Prior to the 2012 election, the Redskins lost against the Carolina Panthers on November 4. The Redskins Rule predicted an outright loss for incumbent Barack Obama against challenger Mitt Romney, or that Obama would lose the popular vote and still win the Electoral College.^[7] However, incumbent Barack Obama won the election with 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206,^[8] held the advantage in the popular vote by more than 4.7 million votes, and the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2012.

In 2016, the Redskins played their last designated home game prior to the election on October 16, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 27–20. This outcome predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton of the Democratic Party, which was in power. Clinton's loss to Republican challenger Donald Trump in the election meant that the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2016 despite Clinton winning the popular vote.

The rule typically does not count the team's time playing in Boston (1932–1936). The team competed as the Boston Braves in 1932 when they won 19–6 over the Staten Island Stapletons. This game does not conform to the rule, as Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated incumbent Herbert Hoover in that election. However, in 1936, the first election year the team competed under its longtime nickname, they defeated the Chicago Cardinals and the incumbent Democratic president, Roosevelt, went on to win re-election.

Results[edit]

Source:^[9]

Superbowl Presidential Election Prediction

Notes[edit]

1. ^ ^abCompeted as Boston
2. ^ ^abUpheld under revised rule

See also[edit]

Super Bowl Predictions Presidential Election

References[edit]

1. ^Bruce, Peter C. (2014-12-03). Introductory Statistics and Analytics: A Resampling Perspective. John Wiley & Sons. p. xvii. ISBN9781118881668.
2. ^Hofheimer, Bill (October 30, 2012). ''Redskins Rule': MNF's Hirdt on intersection of football & politics'. ESPN. Retrieved October 16, 2016.
3. ^Manker, Rob (November 7, 2012). 'Redskins Rule: Barack Obama's victory over Mitt Romney tackles presidential predictor for its first loss'. Chicago Tribune. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
4. ^ ^abPohl, Robert S. (2013-08-20). Urban Legends & Historic Lore of Washington,. The History Press. pp. 78–80. ISBN9781625846648.
5. ^Katzowitz, Josh (November 1, 2012). 'A Redskins victory vs. Panthers means Obama wins, loss means Romney wins'. CBS News. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
6. ^'Obama elected after Redskins omen'. BBC News. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
7. ^Krieg, Gregory J. (November 5, 2012). ''Redskins Rule' Points to Romney Victory'. ABC News. Retrieved November 8, 2012.
8. ^'President Barack Obama wins Florida, topping Romney in final electoral vote tally 332 to 206'. Washington Post. November 10, 2012. Retrieved November 10, 2012.
9. ^'Electoral College Results'. Archives.gov. Retrieved October 4, 2020.

Super Bowl Presidential Elections Predictor