Conventional wisdom says that sometimes a betting system can make your gambling experience more intense, and if you’re lucky you can have some short-term success. But, you cannot beat the house edge in the long term. This is because each roll of the dice, spin of the wheel, or hand of cards dealt, is a completely random event. Independent and unrelated to the others.

But there is a system capable of providing predictions, results, and tips for horse racing betting fans. The First Favourite is the most profitable horse racing system providing best horse handicapping service since the year 2013 & is a true and reliable provider of horse racing tips. This collection of 27 systems for betting was compiled by the submissions of the actual users and bettors of these systems. No specific claims are made as to the success or otherwise of the methods detailed, but they are published here in the belief that the systems will help backers to take on their future betting with far. Recent Betting System Posts. Post CoVid Sports Break MLB Raw Number Record Update: Covid-19 Interlude Newsletter Series Sample: NBA SPORTS BETTING SYSTEM; Pro Computer Gambler Covid-19 Record is now: 6915-6069 +897.41 units! Pro Computer Gambler Record is NOW +837.70 units! ProComputerGambler Record is NOW +807.24 units! Free horse racing systems often out-perform some of the most expensive on the market. Free doesn't mean 'bad!' There are so many great free data sources available on the Internet that free horse racing systems are here to stay.

Against this conventional wisdom, I believe you can increase your chances of winning by changing your betting patterns. You cannot remove the house edge for an individual game, but the chances of you winning or losing a successive number of games in a row are substantially less. This is where betting systems play a part to increase your overall returns, lower your losses, and/or limit your risk depending on the strategy employed, and luck experienced in a given session.

It’s not necessary to win 50% of your hands to come out ahead. By structuring your bets correctly you can still come out ahead in a given session whilst loosing more than 50% of the time.

As an example, I use this betting strategy at the European Roulette table on even bets Red/Black, Odd/Even, and regularly come out ahead. Start with 1 unit/chip i.e. $10. If you win the first game stay at a $10 bet for the next game. If you loose, add another unit to make your second game in the round a $20 bet. If you win you’ve come out ahead for the round by one unit, in this case $10 and go back to a single unit bet of $10. If you loose add another unit betting $30 for the 3rd game. If you win this game, you’ve broken even for the round. Go back to a 1 unit bet of $10. I usually have a goal of winnings in mind that I need to reach before finishing the session. This would depend on the amount you’re betting, i.e. with a single unit of $10, my goal will normally be $200 before I end the session. If you are a high roller, add some 00’s to these numbers.

There are many different betting systems listed below that can be used for table games such as Roulette, Craps, Blackjack, Baccarat, etc. If we’ve missed any, send us a message, so that we can add it to the list.

Select the below links if you wish to access the full article for each Strategy.

• Alexembert – An improvement of the d`Alembert progression system primarily used in Roulette.
  The increments between a stage of this progression are higher than in the original d`Alembert. Whereas the d’Alembert had a progression of 1, 2, 3 etc, with the Alexembert method, you can use 1, 3, 5 or 1, 4, 7 so the bet amounts increase by 2 or 3 each time as opposed to by 1. This aims to place lower bets during losing streaks and higher bets during winning streaks.
  Starting with a bet of 1 unit, after a loss the bet amount is increased to the next value, with a win it is reduced to the previous value or remains at 1 if this is not possible.
• Anti-Martingale – In this betting system mainly used in Roulette a player can capitalize on a winning streak by doubling his bets. If you lose, you place the initial bet amount. There is no bankroll size limitation and the casino limits don’t effect you.
  
• Ascot – This system is mostly used in Roulette but may also be applied with casino games like craps and baccarat.
  The Ascot betting system sees winning bets increase by one step at a time in an agreed list of amounts. Losing bets see the next bet decreased by one step.
  The Ascot series can be between 7 and 11 numbers, an example is 2 3 5 8 13 20 30.
  Your first bet would be a number in the middle such as 8. If you win this bet, move to 13 units for the next bet, if you lose decrease to 5 units and so on. The series will end when the last bet in the series, in this case, 30, is won or the first bet of 2 is lost.
• ASM System – A simple betting strategy used primarily in Roulette. For this system, divide your bets into 30 equal units. The system is betting the following number of units: 1-1-2-2-4-4.
  Start betting 1 unit, if you win move to the next amount. If you lose on bet 1, 2 or 3, go back to bet number 1. If you lose on bet 4 or higher, go back to bet 3. Continue until you either lose your 30 units or win an amount you are happy with.
• Beresford Progression – A progressive betting system for Roulette. This system is flexible and can be used in lots of different ways. Although it can result in good profits, the losses are limited making it a good system to try. The Beresford Progression works on a similar basis to the Labouchere System. However, reductions in bet amounts take place after lost bets as opposed to won bets using the Beresford Progression System.
  Starting with 1 1 1 1 1, each bet amount is determined by adding the first and last digit together, the total is then added to the end of the string of numbers. If the bet wins, the next bet is again the total of the first and last digit, with the new amount added to the end, if the bet loses, the first and last digits are crossed off and the next bet is the total of the new first and last digits.
• Cancellation System by Henry Labouchere – The Cancellation System is for bets in Roulette such as Red/Black, Odd/Even or Pass/Don’t Pass in Craps. It is based on the idea that 2 even bets will come in around the same amount of times and if that happens in the short term whilst you are playing then you will finish the session ahead.
  Starting with 10 1’s on a sheet of paper, each time you bet you add up the left and right digits to determine how much you bet.

  If you win, cross both the first and last numbers out. If you lose the bet, add the total bet to the right-hand side of the row of numbers. The next bet will be the total of the new left hand and right-hand number added together.

• Capitalization of profits – The Capitalization of Profits system is for casino games where you are playing against the house. Increase your bet size from wins, whilst building up a reserve at the same time.
  This system works by increasing the bet amount when winning and adding to a reserve pool to protect your initial bankroll.

  Split your starting stack into 20 separate bets and then you have ‘attacks’ which are a set number of bets together – when you gain 4 units, these are placed into a reserve to protect the starting capital.

• Deance Progression – A Martingale double-up progression system for games where you are playing against the house. This system is based on the Martingale system, with less risk involved. The aim of this system is to gain a total of 4 units. Units are placed evenly into 4 columns, the first bet is the total of numbers in column 4, the 2nd bet the total of column 3. You will start with 4 columns with 1 in.
  If you get a winning bet, it is removed from the appropriate column – you will then have 3 columns with 1 in as the last column will be crossed off. If the bet is a loser then it is added to the far left empty column or added to each column from left to right. Therefore, if you lose your first bet, you will have 2, 1, 1, 1 in your four columns. If you have a losing bet of 2 or more units, these amounts are spread equally and added from left to right on the row below.

  By splitting any lost bets evenly over each column, the bet amount rises slower and means more than 40 consecutive losses are needed to reach the maximum bet size. With the Martingale double up system, each bet doubles after a loss so the table maximum can be reached very quickly meaning you cannot always recoup losses. Remember, the aim is only to win 4 units, so once you have won this amount, take your winnings and start again if you prefer.

• Differential Betting System – A Modification of The Contre D`Alembert Progression for games where you are playing against the house. This system sees bet amounts increase after a win and decrease where possible after a loss.
  Starting with a one-unit bet, if you win, increase your next bet by 1 unit. If you lose on the first bet, place a further bet of 1 unit, if you lose after a win, reduce your next bet by 1 unit. All bets should be made on even money bets.
• Double Street – The Double Street strategy is a low risk and conservative Roulette strategy. It is low risk as you are betting just 6 chips each round but covering 17 numbers in total.
  Place 6 chips of equal amounts as follows: 2 chips on a six-line bet, 2 chips on a different six line bet covering new numbers, 1 chip on a straight-up bet on any number and 1 chip on a corner bet covering 4 numbers.

  This results in a win of 4 units if you hit any of the numbers in the 2 six-line bets, 35 to 1 if the straight-up number comes in and a 2 unit win if any of the corner bet numbers come in.

• Dual even money progression – A multiple progressive betting system for Roulette.
  This system involves placing 2 bets the opposite side of an even money bet – for example, Red/Black, Odd/Even or High/Low on Roulette.

  Following the Fibonacci progression on one bet – 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, you place another bet on the opposite side using the following units: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256. The logic behind this is that you will lose at some point and this system minimizes losses by doubling the bet on the opposite colour meaning that when this colour comes out, you regain any losses on that colour plus one unit.

• Even Chance Bets – An even chance betting system for Roulette players. In this system, we increase or decrease our next bet depending on the outcome.
  Choose your starting bet and if you lose, increase your bet by 20% for the next bet. If the bet is a winner, decrease your next bet by 10%.
• Famous Progressions – A summary of well-known progressions. This is a simple system to learn but you will need a big bankroll in case of a bad run. Choose how much you want to bet to start and go for an even money bet. If you win, collect your winnings and start again, if you lose, double your previous bet. Continue like this until you win, after which time start from the initial bet amount again.
• Fast Double Bet – An aggressive strategy for Roulette, Blackjack, or other games where house edge is low. Playing all 3 even money chance bets on the Roulette table at the same time, place 1 unit on each. If you get a win, place the winnings plus 1 more unit, so 3 units again, if this wins, place the winnings – 6 units – plus one more, so 7 in total. If you lose, start with 1 unit again.
• Flat Bet Counting – The Flat Bet Counting system is a Money management system for Roulette.
  You need to split your play into 3 equal segments – this could be time or number of spins – and decide on a loss amount at which point you will take a break. The aim of the 1st level is to make a profit equal to 10% of bankroll, the 2nd level is to try and win any losses from the 1st level if necessary and the 3rd level is to win back total losses and try and make a small profit. You will only move to levels 2 and 3 if the current level fails.
  Level 1 is about winning 10% of bankroll so we recommend you place bets equal to 1% of bankroll and continue until you either win 10 units – 10% – or reach the limit for segment 1.
• Fractional Betting – In Baccarat, Blackjack and Roulette this strategy considers 2 losses, or 2 wins as the beginning of a trend where you will bet accordingly. Starting with bets totaling 3 times the table minimum, you increase your bet amount by a third after 2 wins and decrease it by two thirds after 2 losses. You may need to get some small denomination chips to get the bet amounts as accurate as possible.
  This is aimed at maximizing winning trends and minimizing losses on losing trends. Although this system will not get you big wins, you will get a nice profit when you hit a good winning streak.
• Garcia System – When playing Roulette this system takes advantage of the occasional long runs of ‘Even Chance’. The 3 bet amounts are 1 unit, 3 units, and 7 units.
  Watch the first spin, then bet one unit on the opposite of the winning bet. For example, if red comes in, bet 1 unit on black. If you win, the sequence starts again on the opposite bet, so if you bet 1 unit on black and black comes in, you start the sequence – 1 unit – on red.
  If you lose the first bet, stay with the losing value but bet 3 units. If this wins, start the sequence again on the opposite value, if you lose, stay with it and bet 7 units.
• The Guetting Progression – The Guetting Progression system is a progressive system for even number bets in Roulette. It is based on the idea of a progressive system, which starts small and then increases at a faster rate if wins are coming. There are 4 levels of play – in level 1 you bet 2 units per spin, level 2 either 3, 4 or 6 units, level 3 is 8, 12 or 16 units and level 4 consists of bets of 20, 30 or 40 units.
  Starting at level 1, any 2 consecutive wins see you move up to a higher bet in your current level or move to the lowest amount in the next level up. Any loss at the first attempt of a level means you go back to the lowest bet on that level or back down a level.
• Guetting Progression Part II – Same as above.
• Half Peak – The same as the Alexembert with a slightly helpful modification: the half peak mechanism. This is a very simple betting system to learn. Start with any bet amount you wish, if you win, decrease the bet by 1 unit, if you lose, increase it by 1 unit.
  If you win and then lose or lose and then win, you will make a 1 unit profit, keep going with the system for as long as you wish and if you win one of the last 2 bets you will end up with a small profit.
• Hollandish System – A progression system for table games. Starting with a bet of one unit, you continue at this level until you get your first win, then increase the bet to 3 units. Again, continue to bet 3 units per spin until your next win when you increase to 5, the next win 7, then 9, etc. Continue until you reach an amount where you are either happy to walk away with the profits or hit your maximum loss amount.
• Martingale – The Martingale system is one of the most popular and is for even money bets like Odd/Even, Black/Red or High/Low for Roulette and Pass/Don’t Pass in Craps.It is a very simple system to learn – every time a bet is lost, double your stake for the next bet. On even money bets, by the law of averages, you won’t be far from a winning bet and when you do you will get all your losses back.
  However, following this plan can lead to high bet amounts if you go on a bad run so you will need to ensure you have a good bankroll and the table limits are high to allow you to keep playing for as long as possible before hitting them.
• Oscar’s Grind – The Oscar’s Grind system is a popular system with many players.Starting with a bet of 1 unit – the amount is up to you and will depend on bankroll – keep betting on any even money bet until you win one. If you lose, the next bet remains the same amount, if you win then it is increased by 1 unit for the next bet. This continues until you recap any previous losses and come out 1 unit ahead at which point you start the series again with a bet of 1 unit.
• Piquemouche Method – Based on the Martingale betting system, the Piquemouche sees you bet each level 3 times instead of the 1 time before doubling the bet amount. This sees your betting more prudent than the Martingale system but it does mean that you need more than 1 win before you break even. Whereas the Martingale system doubles the bet amount after you lose, with this system your bet amounts would be 1,1,1,2,2,2,4,4,4,8,8,8, etc.
  On each level, you only double the bet when you lose 3 times more than you win. If you win 3 times more than you lose on any level, you are in profit and you start again from 1 unit.
• Pluscoup Progression – The Pluscoup Progression system is a winning or ‘up as you win’ system. It is similar to other systems in that it is for use on even money bets but is more aggressive than most so you will need a larger bankroll. Start with a bet of 1 unit – the value of which will depend on your bankroll. Should this bet win then you take your profit and bet 1 unit again. If you lose, the bet amount stays as 1 unit until you register your first win, after which it increases to 2 units.
  If you are still down after a win, continue this way by increasing the next bet by 1 unit each time you win until you find yourself ahead, at which point go back to 1 unit for your first bet and start the system again.
• Pyramid System – Known as either the D’Alembert system of Pyramid system, this is one of the most popular systems for roulette.Based on the Martindale system but with smaller risk, you start by betting 1 unit and continue to do so until you lose. After your first loss, the bet amount goes up by 1 unit. After the next bet, if you win the bet amount reduces by 1 unit, if you lose again it goes up by one unit.
  Continue this way – increasing the next bet by 1 unit if your bet loses and reduce it by 1 unit if your bet wins.
• Small Wins System – The aim of this system is to win a small percentage of your bet over a number of spins. The formula for working out what to bet is X/Y where X is the amount you wish to win and Y is the number of spins over which you want to win this amount. Start by placing a bet of the amount you wish to win – so X – if you win a bet, deduct the amount you won from X and 1 from Y and play again. When you lose a bet, add the loss amount to X and add one to Y.
• Stan’s System – This is a simple to work out system that sees you reduce your bet when you win and increase on a loss. To start, write down consecutive numbers up to double the number of bets you are happy to lose, so for example, if we take 10, you would write down 1 to 20. Starting in the middle, so in the above case 10, bet 10 units on an even money bet. If you win, reduce your bet by 1 to 9, if you lose, increase it by 1 to 11. Keep going this way until you either get to the 1 or 20.
• Star alternative progression – The Star system works by slowly increasing bet amount when a bet is lost and works best for Blackjack.Betting each level twice, you start off with a bet of 1 unit and continue at this level until a bet is lost. The first time a bet loses, the bet amount stays the same, the next time you move up a level and bet 2 units. You continue in this way until you either win an amount you are happy with or you lose twice on the final bet level, at which point there is a recovery level which has bigger bets, lose on the recovery level and there is a 2nd recovery level to try and recuperate losses.
  Should a game of blackjack be lost that involves either doubling or splitting – so the bet amount is doubled – this counts as 2 losses instead of one.
• Stepladder System – In this system, each number is the equivalent of a rung on a ladder.The aim is the get to the top of the ladder by increasing one rung at a time. As with a normal ladder, each rung must be fairly close together. Each number represents a betting unit of your choice depending on your bankroll.
  Start by betting 5 units and simply move up a rung when you win and down one when you lose.
• Stretched d’ Alembert – This method is unsurprisingly based on the original d’Alembert method. The Stretched d’Alembert method involves several bets at each stage thus ensuring we never bet too much in a single go.The new levels would be as follows: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 3.1, 3.2 etc.
  The sequence of 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5 are bets using 1 unit before we raise the bet to 2 units. We then play the sequence of 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4 and 2.5 with 2 units before raising to 3 units etc. The betsize is reduced in the same manner.
• The Sure Win Method – A system for even money bets in Roulette, Blackjack, Craps, and Baccarat. The principle for this method is that all even chance bets repeat themselves quite frequently. Put your first bet on any even chance outcome. If you win, leave both units on that bet. If you win a second time, return your next bet to one unit. Repeat the above on every session. If you lose, use the next bet in the progression to try and get a parlay.

  1-1-2-2-3-4-5-7-9-12-16-22-29-39-52-69-92-123

  Remember, on any profit return to the start of the series. Decide before you start where your level of comfort is and use that as your decision as to how long to go on for.

• The Zero Factor – The Zero Factor betting system aims to cover all even money bets – including both sides of each.Whilst this may sound a losing strategy as you will lose if zero comes out and break even if it doesn’t, the key is the amount you bet on each side of the even money bets.
  You can reduce the amount lost if 0 comes out and if done correctly, is not as silly as it may sound.
• Thomas Elrod System – This system uses a debit column and control number to determine the amount of the next bet. Elrod himself used 100 units as the initial debit amount and 20 as the control.
  Divide the debt amount by the control amount to determine the amount for the next bet, if you lose, add the loss amount to the debit column and divide again, if the bet is a winner, subtract from the control figure, and the win amount from the debit column and divide again.
• Tier et Tout – This system is a winning progression and therefore sees the total bet amount rise slowly depending on how you are doing.
  Decide how much you wish to bet and then take 1 third of it for your first bet. If this bet loses, bet the remaining 2 thirds of the bet on the next go. If the first or second bets win, increase the original bet amount to include the profit and then bet 1 third of this amount next go. If both bets lose, start again with the same bet amount and bet 1 third.
  If you can avoid 2 losses in a row, the winnings can go up at a nice rate.
• Unorthodox Even Chances – This system is a combination of the Martingale and Cancellation Systems.
  Watch 15 spins on the roulette wheel and make a note of which even money bet comes in the most. You can then choose whether to play with an unorthodox Martingale or unorthodox Cancellation System.
  The Martingale plays for a couple of wins whilst the Cancellation plays through one full set of numbers.
• Whittacker Progression for Doz & Col bets – This system uses bets with odds of 2 to 1 rather than even money bets, so for example on Roulette, it may be Column bets.
  The following starting sequence is used:
  1. bet 1 unit
  2. bet 1 unit
  3. bet 2 units if you win on the first bet, your profit is 2 units. If you win on the second bet, your profit is 1 unit. If you win on the third bet, your profit is 2 units. In each of these cases you start the progression again with the same sequence: 1 – 1 – 2

  If you lose the first 3 bets, the next bet is determined as follows: If you have a negative balance of between 4 and 9 units the balance is divided by 2. If you have a negative balance of between 10 and 21 units the balance is divided by 3. If you have a negative balance of between 22 and 100 units the balance is divided by 4. If you have a negative balance of over 100 units the balance is divided by 5. If the result of the division is not a whole number, then this number is always rounded up.

• Winning Edge Roulette – This system works best on even money roulette bets, so red or black, odd or even etc.
  Starting with 1, 1, 2, bet the first number in your sequence. If you win, you bet the first and last numbers in the sequence. If you lose, you add the total bet lost to the right of the numbered sequence and then start by betting the first number again.
  Continue like that – If you win, bet first and last, if you lose add the total bet to the right and play with the first amount again.

Featured Gambling Guides

Introduction

Not only do betting systems fail to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Every spin in roulette and every toss in craps is independent of all past events. In the short run, you can fool yourself into thinking a betting system works, by risking a lot to win a little. However, in the long run no betting system can withstand the test of time. The longer you play, the ratio of money lost to money bet will get closer to the expectation for that game.

In the many years that run this site, I have received thousands of e-mails from believers in betting systems. Their faith surpasses religious levels. However, in all things, the more ridiculous a belief is the more tenaciously it tends to be held. Gamblers have been looking for a betting system that works for hundreds of years, and yet the casinos are still standing.

Gambler's Fallacy

The biggest gambling myth is that an event that has not happened recently becomes overdue and more likely to occur. This is known as the “gambler’s fallacy.” Thousands of gamblers have devised betting systems that attempt to exploit the gambler’s fallacy by betting the opposite way of recent outcomes. For example, waiting for three reds in roulette and then betting on black. Hucksters sell “guaranteed” get-rich-quick betting systems that are ultimately based on the gambler’s fallacy. None of them work. If you don’t believe me here is what some other sources say on the topic:

A common gamblers’ fallacy called “the doctrine of the maturity of the chances” (or “Monte Carlo fallacy”) falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of “systems” have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler’s neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays. — Encyclopedia Britannica (look under “gambling”)

No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... — Probability and Measure (second edition, page 94) by Patrick Billingsley

The number of ‘guaranteed’ betting systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics. — The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein

Vegas Click also has a good expose of the gambler’s fallacy.

The Martingale

Every week I receive two or three emails asking me about the betting system by which a player doubles his/her bet after a loss. This system is generally played with an even money game such as the red/black bet in roulette or the pass/don’t pass bet in craps and is known as the Martingale. The idea is that by doubling your bet after a loss, you would always win enough to cover all past losses plus one unit. For example, if a player starts at $1 and loses four bets in a row, winning on the fifth, he will have lost $1+$2+$4+$8 = $15 on the four losing bets and won $16 on the fifth bet. The losses were covered and he had a profit of $1. The problem is that it is easier than you think to lose several bets in a row and run out of betting money after you’ve doubled it all away.

In order to prove this point, I created a program that simulated two systems, the Martingale and flat betting, and applied each by betting on the pass line in craps (which has a 49.29% probability of winning). The Martingale bettor would always start with a $1 bet and start the session with $255 which is enough to cover 8 losses in a row. The flat bettor would bet $1 every time. The Martingale player would play for 100 bets, or until he couldn’t cover the amount of a bet. In that case, he would stop playing and leave with the money he had left. In the event his 100th bet was a loss, he would keep betting until he either won a bet or couldn’t cover the next bet. The person flat betting would play 100 bets every time. I repeated this experiment for 1,000,000 sessions for both systems and tabulated the results. The graph below shows the results:

As you can see, the flat bettor has a bell curve with a peak at a loss of $1, and never strays very far from that peak. Usually the Martingale bettor would show a profit represented by the bell curve on the far right, peaking at $51; however, on the far left we see those times when he couldn’t cover a bet and walked away with a substantial loss. That happened for 19.65% of the sessions. Many believers in the Martingale mistakenly believe that the many wins will more than cover the few losses.

In this experiment, the average session loss for the flat bettor was $1.12, but was $4.20 for the Martingale bettor. In both cases, the ratio of money lost to money won was very close to 7/495, which is the house edge on the pass line bet in craps. This is not coincidental. No matter what system is used in the long run, this ratio will always approach the house edge. To prove this point consider the Martingale player on the pass line in craps who only desires to win $1, starts with a bet of $1, and has a bankroll of $2,047 to cover as many as 10 consecutive losses. The table below shows all possible outcomes with each probability, expected bet, and return.

Expand

Number of losses	Final outcome	Highest bet	Total bet	Net outcome	Probability	Expected bet	Expected return
0	Win	1	1	1	0.49292929	0.49292929	0.49292929
1	Win	2	3	1	0.24995001	0.74985002	0.24995001
2	Win	4	7	1	0.12674233	0.88719628	0.12674233
3	Win	8	15	1	0.06426732	0.96400981	0.06426732
4	Win	16	31	1	0.03258808	1.01023035	0.03258808
5	Win	32	63	1	0.01652446	1.04104089	0.01652446
6	Win	64	127	1	0.00837907	1.06414175	0.00837907
7	Win	128	255	1	0.00424878	1.08343900	0.00424878
8	Win	256	511	1	0.00215443	1.10091479	0.00215443
9	Win	512	1023	1	0.00109245	1.11757574	0.00109245
10	Win	1024	2047	1	0.00055395	1.13393379	0.00055395
10	Loss	1024	2047	-2047	0.00056984	1.16646467	-1.16646467
Total					1.00000000	11.81172639	-0.16703451

The expected bet is the product of the total bet and the probability. Likewise, the expected return is the product of the total return and the probability. The last row shows this Martingale bettor to have had an average total bet of 11.81172639 and an average loss of 0.16703451. Dividing the average loss by the average bet yields .01414141. We now divide 7 by 495 (the house edge on the pass line) and we again get 0.01414141! This shows that the Martingale is neither better nor worse than flat betting when measured by the ratio of expected loss to expected bet. All betting systems are equal to flat betting when compared this way, as they should be. In other words, all betting systems are equally worthless.

Here is another experiment I conducted earlier which proves the same thing as the experiment above. This one is played against roulette testing three different systems. Player 1 flat bet a $1 each time. He was not using a betting system. Player 2 started a series of trials with a bet of $1 and increased his wager by $1 after every winning bet. A lost bet would constitute the end of a series and the next bet would be $1. Player 3 also started a series of bets with a bet of $1 but used a doubling strategy in that after a losing bet of $x he would bet $2x (the Martingale). A winning bet would constitute the end of a series and the next bet would be $1. To make it realistic I put a maximum bet on player 3 of $200. Below are the results of that experiment:

Player 1

• Total amount wagered = $1,000,000,000
• Average wager = $1.00
• Total loss = $52,667,912
• Expected loss = $52,631,579
• Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052668

Player 2

• Total amount wagered = $1,899,943,349
• Average wager = $1.90
• Total loss = $100,056,549
• Expected loss = $99,997,018
• Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052663

Player 3

• Total amount wagered = $5,744,751,450
• Average wager = $5.74
• Total loss = $302,679,372
• Expected loss = $302,355,340
• Ratio of loss to money wagered = 0.052688

As you can see the ratio of money lost to money wagered is always close to the normal house advantage of 1/19 ≈ 0.052632. In conclusion, varying of bet size depending on recent past wins or losses makes no difference in the long run outcome and is no different than always betting the same.

A Third Experiment

“An Old Timer’s Guide to Beating the Craps Table” was a betting system that makes big promises about turning the craps tables into your own personal cash register. I offered to test his system for free. Here are the results.

The Cancellation Betting System

Despite all my warnings about betting systems, readers continually ask me to suggest one. To satisfy those who enjoy playing systems I have done a full explanation and analysis of the cancellation betting system.

Don't Waste Your Money

The Internet is full of people selling betting systems with promises of beating the casino at games of luck. Those who sell these systems are the present day equivalent of the 19th century snake oil salesmen. Under no circumstances should you waste one penny on any gambling system. Every time one has been put to a computer simulation it failed and showed the same ratio of losses to money bet as flat betting. If you ask a system salesman about this you likely will get a reply such as, “In real life nobody plays millions of trials in the casino.” You’re likely to also hear that his/her system works in real life, but not when used against a computer simulation. It is interesting that professionals use computers to model real-life problems in just about every field of study, yet when it comes to betting systems computer analysis becomes “worthless and unreliable,” as the salesman of one system put it. In any event, such an excuse misses the point; the computer runs billions of trials simply to prove that a system is unsound. If it won’t work on a computer, it won’t work in the casino.

Gambling systems have been around for as long as gambling has. No system has ever been proven to work. From an inside source, I know that system salesmen go from selling one kind of system to another. It is a dirty business by which they steal ideas from each other, and are always attempting to rehash old systems as something new.

Free Sports Betting Systems

System salesmen usually promise ridiculous advantages. For example, even with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll. I was asked to prove this claim so I wrote a computer simulation based on the toss of a biased coin, with a 50.5% chance of winning. At all times the player bet 1% of his bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar. However, if a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then he only bet as much as he needed to get to exactly $1,000,000. In addition, I ran simulations with a 2% advantage and for a starting bankroll of $1,000. Following are the results of all four tests.

$100 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

• Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
• Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
• Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$100 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

• Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
• Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
• Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$1,000 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

• Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
• Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
• Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

$1,000 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

• Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
• Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
• Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
• Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
• Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

These simulations prove that with just a small advantage of as little as 1% and a bankroll of as little as $100 you can grind your way to a million dollars through the gambling equivalent of compound interest. Yet you never hear of this actually happening. Could it be that these gambling systems don’t work after all?!

Here are some examples of system salesmen who try to take advantage of the mathematically challenged. There are hundreds of sites like these on the Internet, and this list is just a sampling. Frequently these sites vanish in the middle of the night, or suddenly direct traffic to a porn site. Please do let me know if any of these links don’t work or take you to other than the intended place.

Also, be warned that there are many others out there selling get rich quick gambling schemes that claim they are not betting systems. These sites usually throw out lots of fancy physics words like “chaos” and “fractals,” but display no evidence they know what these words mean. In the past, I have listed some such sites above but got angry letters claiming I shouldn’t criticize what I don’t understand. Personally, I feel that every method claiming an easy way to beat the casinos is a scam, and I don’t need to understand whatever the secret is. However, to be totally fair, I’ll only list betting systems above since those have been mathematically debunked by computer simulations. If anyone did find a truly easy way to beat the casinos, why aren’t they getting rich doing it?

The Wizard of Odds Challenge

For about six years, from 1999 to 2005, I offered $20,000 to anyone with a betting system that could show a profit over a one billion hand computer simulation. Here you can find the rules of the challenge. However, in all this time I only had one serious taker and hundreds of people wasting my time, pretending to be interested but never following through. So in January 2005, I took down the offer.

My webmaster, Michael Bluejay, now offers essentially the same challenge on his own site, VegasClick.com. If you accept his challenge, and win, I will be happy to state as such on the front page of this site, for proving the experts wrong.

A Fourth Experiment

On October 19, 2004, Daniel Rainsong accepted my challenge. Mr. Rainsong was so confident he would win he doubled the stakes to my $40,000 against his $4,000. Although the rules of the challenge are based on craps or roulette I allowed this challenge to be based on blackjack rules with a house edge of only 0.26%. Can a betting system beat a game with a house edge this small and a 1,028 bet spread? Visit my Rainsong Challenge page for all the details.

Please, Don't Write

I no longer respond to e-mails that suggest a player can beat a negative expectation game over the long run with a betting system. Such e-mail is deleted on sight. I have said all I have to say on the topic here and in my Gambling FAQ.

If you really want to discuss the topic, then I invite you not to do so at my forum at Wizard of Vegas, but instead one where you will be among like-minded people, like the forum atJohn Patrick's site (Update: This site has, not surprisingly, gone the way of the dodo bird).

Internal Links

• Oscar's Grind betting system.
• Labouchere betting system.
• Fibonacci betting system.
• Martingale betting system.
• D'Alembert betting system.
• Keefer roulette system.

Free Baseball Betting Systems

External Links

Free Golf Betting Systems

• Betting Systems and the House Edge, an article by Ph.D. mathematician Eliot Jacobson debunking betting systems.
• Betting Systems, an article by Michael Bluejay of VegasClick.
• German translation of this article.
• Debunking the “No Risk Don’t Come” betting system.

Free Sports Betting Systems

Free Greyhound Betting Systems

Written by: Michael Shackleford