Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular forms of NFL gambling, along with moneyline betting and spread betting. Despite being quite difficult to do well, the concept is quite simple: Over/under betting strategy means picking how many total points will be scored in a game. The number provided as a line is the combination of both teams, and you simply pick: Over? Or under?

Naturally, in practice, the strategy gets a little more complicated, so I’ll explain over the course of this page.

Before I go into detail, though, I want to remind you that over/under bets are one of the most in-depth situations that you will find in NFL gambling. More than most other types, over/under wagers require that you have a complete and comprehensive vision for how you think an NFL game will play out.

We also list our top recommended NFL betting sites here, for your convenience.

Nfl Bets For Today

The 2020 NFL win totals opened on February 5. Track how the win totals for each team change in the graph below, which was generated by taking each team’s average win total across our top online sports betting sites. You’ll find the current win totals with the odds in the table under the graph. 2020 NFL Win Totals. With the start of the 2020 NFL season less than a month away, sportsbooks have updated NFL win totals. Before making any picks, you NEED to see the latest win total predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. This model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has crushed human experts on a consistent basis. NFL picks: The best way to approach win total bets By Scott Yellen, VSiN. View author archive. I have used this for 12 years or so to help gauge NFL season win totals. Though it’s only one.

This page does not concern researching and determining what the outcome of a game will be: For more information on that, check out my general introduction page, which describes my three-stage NFL Betting Strategy. In short, to make over/under bets, I utilize a three-stage process: gathering information, utilizing checks & balances and visualizing the game.

Here, I’ll go beyond this general NFL betting strategy and provide the following details specific to over/under betting:

• How total score over/under bets work and how to interpret the line
• How to know when to place a wager on a total score over/under bet
• How to find good value and make money in the long run with O/U bets

Let’s get started by talking about what an over/under bet is, and how the line works.

How Does a Total Score Over/Under Bet Work?

In my experience, over/under betting is one of the most common and enjoyable ways to gamble on the outcome of an NFL game. Across the nation and across the world, people tune in to NFL games – especially during the fourth quarter – to see whether their over/under bet will pay out.

A total score over/under bet is simply a wager placed on how high the combined score will be between the two teams. To explain, let’s take a look at some specific examples:

These examples come from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: There were 8 games on national TV the weekend of January 7-8, and the gambling public was out in full force to stake their claim on one team or another to win, to cover the spread, or to push the total score one way or another.

These were the available total score over/under bets:

• New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
• Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 43 (-110), Under 43 (-110)
• Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
• Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans: Over 37 (-110), Under 37 (-110)

When I put up these sample over/under bets, a couple things become immediately apparent. First off, we notice that different from moneyline bets and spread bets, an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. You can bet the over, or the under, but you can’t bet on one team or the other.

The other thing that you’ll notice is that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This reflects the golden rule of sports gambling: The goal of odds-makers is always to promote even action on both sides of a wager. Changing the odds to make wagers more or less profitable to gamblers is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.

The four games listed above also demonstrate the usual range of over/under odds. In contrast with moneyline odds (which vary widely) and ATS odds (which will often go up to +/- 150), over/under odds do not vary much. Having 75% or more of the games show -110 on both sides is a pretty standard proportion.

And in these examples, the total score lines themselves (which a gambler may go over or under) are also very standard. If the distribution of total score over/under lines was a normal curve, then it’s likely the bulge of the bell would fall around the range of 42 to 47 – this is the range of lines that you will most often see for most NFL games.

Let’s think about what this means in practice. If a game has a total score of 42 points, this means that – on average – both teams contributed 21 points to the total score. This means the equivalent of three touchdowns per team, or six touchdowns total over the course of the game.

For a 60-minute game, this in turn means a touchdown for every 10 minutes of game time: Touchdown #1 on a team’s opening drive. Touchdown #2 with 3 minutes left in the first quarter. Touchdown #3 with 4 minutes left in the half. Touchdown #4 midway through the third quarter. Touchdown #5 with 10 minutes left in the game. And Touchdown #6 on the game’s final drive, within the two-minute warning.

Now, do all NFL games play out this way? Of course not. Not by a long shot. But the reason I give this simplified example is just to make the total score a little more tangible. Thinking about a 42-point total score over/under is a little hard to grasp at first. But when you break it down in the context of a real game, it becomes much more clear how to diagnose what a line means and what type of a game would provoke such a scoring pattern.

With this basic idea of how over/under bets work, let’s now look at when you should place an over/under bet, which is tantamount to knowing whether the odds offer good value.

When Should You Place an Over/Under Bet?

For some reason, NFL gamblers that are particularly keen on using hard statistics to decide when to place a wager seem to gravitate towards over/under betting. So to provide some hard statistics to this conversation, I would simply offer the numbers that I’ve assembled in my 15+ years of NFL gambling.

While it’s not profitable to look back too far into the past (as the NFL has changed dramatically over its history, and the introduction and widespread adoption of the West Coast offense has recently changed the landscape of scoring in the league), limiting our target range to the last 15 years of regular season and playoff football gives us plenty of data to play with – over 7500 games-worth, to be exact.

Over this span of time, the limits for total score lines have become fixed at 30 (for the lowest) and 60 (for the highest). Of course, just because odds-makers don’t post lines lower than 30 or higher than 60 doesn’t mean that games don’t end below or above these bookends. According to my data, roughly 1 in 7 games end up with a total score below 30, and roughly 1 in 8 games end up with a total score above 60.

It’s extremely important to keep in mind, however, that there is no magic statistical formula that will tell you whether or not a game will go over or under. There are a host of systems out there – like betting the under in divisional games and the over in non-conference games, betting the over if the game gets to 41 or 42 or 44 total points, betting the over in games played in below-freezing temperatures, and any number of others.

But once again, statistical systems must be taken with a grain of salt. During these same 15 years, during which so much statistical knowledge has become available about when to bet the over and when to bet the under, the actual record has remained almost exactly 50–50. As in all types of betting, the house will end up making sure that the odds even out.

This is why prudent over/under bets require an understanding of value. Value betting is generally defined as wagering only in situations when you feel very confident about what the outcome of a wager will be (i.e. you feel there is low risk) while at the same time you feel that the odds for a particular wager hold the potential for a nice payoff (i.e. you feel there is high reward).

The betting systems mentioned above are after precisely this type of value, albeit in a slightly misguided way. When a betting system points out some statistical anomaly about how often a particular set of situations has prompted a winning over or an under, it’s useful to note the conditions they reference, but this doesn’t mean you should take what they’re saying as law. Consistently finding value requires combining together a large number of different betting systems with a large number of situational factors.

Now at this point, you might be asking: But what are these factors? How do I know if I’m getting good value? The short and honest response is that I can’t possibly explain this to you in words, especially not in the course of one short page. Like I said above, there is no specific magic formula for you to follow, and if someone tells you that there is, they’re probably going to ask for your credit card information next. It takes skill, experience, and a certain amount of feel to find value, and this takes time to develop.

Having said this, I don’t want you to think that there’s nothing you can do to start making good value decisions, and learning for yourself how to make this a profitable part of your gambling repertoire. In the next section, I’ll dive into the specifics of finding good value for total score over/under bets.

How Do You Make Money with Over/Under Betting?

As I just stated, and as I explain in detail in my general NFL Betting Strategy page, NFL gambling is a skill, and it takes practice. Like any other skill, it takes time and effort to develop the intuition that makes you proficient and profitable. I’ve been employed for 15+ years as an NFL gambler, and one of the ways that I’ve been able to pull it off it by understanding that it’s not a get-rich-quick scheme. It’s more like a job.

With total score over/under betting, the single most important factor involved in making money in the long-run is being smarter and more disciplined at wagering only on good value bets. This is a skill that you will get better at the more often you do it. As you place more wagers, you’ll develop a feel for when there is good value to be found in a particular bet.

Don’t let yourself be suckered in by touts and sharps that will try to convince you that there is some set of numbers, some statistical formula, or some software package that will do the work for you to determine whether you should bet the over or the under, and is guaranteed to make you money 100% of the time.

(Even if they advertise something more realistic – which is to say, something closer to being correct 60% of the time – I would still turn tail and run as soon as they want you to whip out a credit card and pay them five easy payments of whatever.)

In total score over/under betting, there is no substitute for visualizing the entire game in your own mind. You need to actually count up – point by point, quarter by quarter, drive by drive, possession by possession – which team is going to score how many points when and why (take a look at my general NFL Strategy page for more info on this). Do this before you even look at the line, and you’ll have a baseline opinion to compare against.

Next, when you look at the line, make careful note of how different your personal decision on the total score is from the decision that odds-makers framed for the gambling public. You could be dead on (in which case, you’re probably right but there probably isn’t value) or you could be way off (in which case, you’re either right, and there is value, or you’re wrong).

Once again, there’s no exact science to knowing whether or not you are right (and the odds are different) or you are wrong (and the odds were right). The most honest thing I can tell you is this: the key to a good value bet is when you feel certain of a given outcome, while the gambling public and/or the odds-maker feels differently.

For me, I’ve come to a pretty good understanding with myself about when I’m probably stumbling into a good value bet and when I’m probably deluding myself. This isn’t something that I know factually, using statistics or logic, it’s just a feeling I have through years of experience. This is precisely the type of intuition that you can develop with enough time and practice.

Trust your gut, learn from your mistakes, and you’ll be well on your way to becoming a profitable NFL gambler.

Summary: NFL Over/Under Betting Strategy

Total score over/under betting is one of the three most popular NFL bets. The concept is quite simple: In a total score over/under bet, you pick how many combined points will be scored in a game between the two teams. More than almost any other type of NFL betting, over/under bets require an in-depth prediction for how the game will play out, for which I employ my three-stage NFL betting strategy.

Here’s an example from the Wild Card round of the 2016/17 NFL playoffs: New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105). Notice that an over/under bet is a bet on one side of a line, not on an individual team. Also, notice that there are odds attached to each outcome – each over or under. This is the way that odds-makers prompt even action on both sides of an over/under bet.

The odds for total score over/under wagers are pretty staid: you’ll often see odds of -110 on both sides of a significant proportion of the available total score bets. Most lines fall in the range of 42 to 47, with odds-makers never setting a line below 30 or above 60. However, the actual total score of games often falls below 30 or above 60, even though odds-makers don’t set lines in this range.

A key strategy for understanding the line is to visualize how a game might play out to yield that total score. For example, a typical line of 42 could mean 21 points per side, 3 touchdowns per team, which means 6 total touchdowns in a game. Six touchdowns spread over a 60-minute game averages out to one touchdown every 10 minutes of game time. This helps us visualize what the line of 42 means.

Over time, you’ll develop a greater feel for what the individual total score numbers mean, and you’ll be able to connect these abstract numbers with a tangible intuition about how offensively intense or how defensively stolid a given game must be in order to yield the total score that you see odds-makers list. This skill takes time and practice to develop, but it’s absolutely vital to turning a profit with O/U bets.

Even though there are a large number of statistically beefy betting systems available for picking total score over/under bets, the truth of the matter is that finding good value requires combining together a host of different factors – there is no magic formula. In simple terms, you are trying to find a situation in which you believe the outcome has low risk, but you also find the odds have high potential reward.

Naturally, finding good value in this way – the combination of low risk and high reward – is the goal of all gambling ventures (and all monetary investments, too). But in the case of total score over/under bets, there’s simply no shortcut to doing the work of visualizing the entire course of an NFL game, counting up the points, and comparing this to the line. If the line feels off, you just might have a good value bet.

In conclusion, take the time to develop your own intuitive skill for when the total score of a game will certainly go over or under the line posted by oddsmakers. It’s not easy, but I can tell you from 15+ years of NFL gambling experience that there are few more rewarding experiences to see the course of a game turn out along the narrative you envisioned. In any case, it’s certainly a ton of fun.

Season win totals are becoming an increasingly popular football wager largely
due to the simplicity of the bet. Where most bettors may focus on spreads, money
lines, and game totals, season win totals may actually be the wager that
increases your bankroll by time the NFL regular season concludes. However, just
like any other wager when
betting on
football, season win totals require a sensible approach and solid
understanding if you want to find value and make money.

What Are Season Win Totals?

Season win totals are exactly what the name sounds like – the number of wins
a team may have at the end of a season. Online
sports betting sites will
set a line for how many games a team may win. This line is designed to get the
most action for bets over and under that number.

Just prior to the start of the 2017 regular season, the Buffalo
Bills were listed as follows:

• Wins: 6
• Over: -155
• Under: +125

As you can see, the Bills had a season totals line of 6 with an over at -155
and an under at +125. This means if you believed the Bills would win more than 6
games in 2017, then you would have to bet $155 to win $100. And if you believed
they wouldn’t win 6 games, then you would bet $100 to win $125.

The Buffalo Bills ended up winning 9 games in 2017, which means if you took
the over, then you would have won.

Remember, this bet is only based on the number of wins during the regular
season. It does not include the post-season.

The Pros for Betting Season Win Totals

Like with any other football wager, there are some pros and cons for betting
on season win totals.

• Easy to understand
• Can bet on multiple teams and lines
• Can make the entire season more enjoyable

• Ties up part of your bankroll for the entire season
• Have to wait all season long to know if you win or lose your bet
• Can be confusing on when to place a season win totals bet

Tips for Betting on NFL Season Win Totals

Season win totals may be easy on the surface, but they do present some
pitfalls if you aren’t careful. To maximize your potential for winning these
wagers, check out the following football betting tips.

Monitor the Offseason

In our article “using
the offseason effectively,” we detail how important the NFL offseason is for
football bettors. Perhaps no other football wager requires you to pay more
attention during the offseason than season win totals.

Depending on which reputable sports betting site you use, season win totals
can be released as early as February after the Super Bowl. However, these lines
and odds will change throughout the course of the offseason due to numerous
reasons like free agency, the Draft, injuries, and suspensions. So by time the
season arrives, bookmakers could’ve adjusted the lines to make them more or less
appealing.

In May, the Arizona Cardinals were listed at 8 wins for the 2017
season. A few days prior to the start of the season, the Cardinals’ season win
totals line bumped up slightly to 8.5 wins. Another example was the Ravens, who
were listed at 9 wins for the 2017 season in May, but by time September hit, the
line had shifted to 8 wins.

As you can see, in a period of 3 1/2 months, which coincided with OTAs through
training camp and the preseason, Vegas dropped the Ravens’ win total down 1 and
bumped the Cardinals’ up a half.

It’s important to stay updated on what’s going on in the NFL because there
are many factors like training camp and preseason games that can impact the
season win totals by time the NFL regular season starts. And this could really
impact the value and success of your bets.

When to Bet on Season Win Totals?

This is a tricky question to answer because it comes down to a few key
factors:

• Your ability to
  identify value
• Your ability to
  handicap a team

With that said, there are two main strategies for when to bet on season win
totals:

• Early in the offseason
  when the lines first come out
• Just prior to the start
  of the regular season

Using our example above, if you placed a bet on the Ravens to go over 9 wins
in the spring, then you would’ve pushed your bet because Baltimore finished with
9 wins exactly on the season. Sticking with our example, if you would’ve taken
the under for Arizona winning less than 8 games in 2017, then you would’ve
pushed that bet because they finished with 8 wins.

However, if you were to have waited until September, then you would’ve been
able to get the line at 8.5 wins for the Cardinals and won your bet.
Additionally, you would’ve been able to hit the Ravens bet, too, because the
line dropped from 9 wins to 8 wins, and you would’ve won with the over.

Pros and Cons for Early Offseason Wagers

Early lines may provide better value as the bookmakers have limited
information on teams and are projecting their lines before anything of substance
happens during the offseason. However, as the offseason goes on, sportsbooks
will also have access to the same information as you do, and the lines may be
more difficult to bet on.

Pros and Cons for Late Offseason Wagers

From our example above, it’s clear that the late offseason wagers would’ve
been more successful. When waiting until just before the season starts, you can
monitor what each NFL team does during their offseason and get a better idea on
how many games you think they will win. Just remember, bookmakers will be
monitoring everything as well. So the lines might move to a number that is
unappealing to you or provides no value.

Review Previous Seasons

When season win totals are first released, bookmakers are taking into
consideration what the teams have done in the previous season(s). It’s important
that you also review the previous season’s win total. However, don’t stop there.
You should really take a look at the last few seasons to get a better idea of if
a team is progressing upwards, downwards, is erratic, or any other possible
trend. You can also get an idea on how close the bookmakers were with their
lines.

Now that you are armed with the data of win totals for the last 3 seasons and
how the teams performed against the projected season win totals, you can analyze
what happened over the last few years to gauge how they might do in the upcoming
season. Factors you should pay attention to are:

• Injuries
• Division
• Offseason moves
• Player suspensions
• Drafted players

Great teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots tend to
win double-digit games each season. Looking at the table above, you will see
that the Steelers won 10, 11, and 13 games over the last 3 years. The Patriots
won 12, 14, and 13 over the last 3 seasons. Right there, it’s easy to assume
that these two teams will win double-digit games again. Additionally, both teams
have gone over all three years, so it might be tempting to pick them to go over
in 2018.

Bookmakers also realize this likelihood and have already set the Steelers at
10.5 wins and the Patriots at 11.5 wins for 2018.

Based on what the Patriots did in the offseason and the division they play
in, they should get 12 wins this year. For the Steelers, it might be harder for
them to win 11 games this year, as their AFC North division is tougher and a few
of their divisional foes have improved already, while Pittsburgh hasn’t really
made any significant offseason improvements so far. Also, Pittsburgh has
averaged 11.3 wins over the last 3 years. There’s no real margin for error.

The Buffalo Bills have won 8, 7, and 9 games over the last 3 years. That’s an
average of 8 wins per season. However, early lines for the 2018 season have the
Bills at 6.5 wins. This is largely due to their uncertainty at quarterback
despite the team improving depth along the offensive and defensive lines, the
running back position, and the secondary. Based on their average alone, there’s
a higher margin for error.

Now, before you run off to place wagers on the Patriots and Bills based on
recent win totals, remember that this is just one tip in your overall strategy
for betting on season win totals. The idea is to encompass all of these tips in
order to make the most informed decision.

Study the Upcoming Schedule

Looking ahead to the 2018 season, you can get an idea of potential success
for just about every NFL team. This is a significant step in handicapping teams
and identifying potential wagers. Factors that you will want to consider in this
process are given below.

Division

Since NFL teams play 6 games against their divisional foes, it’s the first
factor you should consider in handicapping a team’s season win total for the
upcoming season. For example, the Patriots have owned the AFC East for the last
decade. With the Dolphins and Jets most likely taking a step backwards due to
early offseason moves, New England has a good chance at sweeping these two
teams. Additionally, the Patriots have had an incredible record against the
Bills over the last decade and have a good chance of sweeping them as well. So
once again, New England has a good chance at winning at least 5 games and
possibly 6 in their division. If that happens, they only need to win 6 of 10
remaining games in order to get to 12 wins and go over the 11.5 projected season
win total for 2018.

Conversely, teams like the Buccaneers are in trouble this year, as the other
3 teams in their division all went to the playoffs last year. Additionally, they
all have made decent moves to improve their rosters, while the Bucs haven’t done
much to close the gap. For 2018, Tampa Bay’s projected win total is at 6.5. So
the question you have to ask is whether or not you think they will win more than
6 games in arguably the toughest NFL division.

As you can see by these two examples, the division they play in is crucial to
their win total on the season.

In-Conference Games

How To Bet Nfl Games

After the division, a team’s conference schedule is an important factor to
consider. In addition to their 6 divisional games, each team will play another 6
conference games. And depending on which conference division they play, a team
could really improve their overall win total.

In 2017, the Steelers swept the AFC North and then went 4-2 in their
remaining conference games for an overall AFC Conference record of 10-2. Before
you even factor in their non-conference record, Pittsburgh had 10 wins and was
already near their projected season win total of 10.5. The Steelers played the
AFC South division last year, which was the worst division in the AFC for the
2017 season. Their remaining 2 conference games were against the Chiefs and
Patriots who, like the Steelers, won their respective divisions in 2016.

In 2018, Pittsburgh will play the AFC West division, which will be an
improved division, so wins might be harder to come by. Not to mention that they
will also have to play the Patriots and the Jaguars since all 3 teams finished
at the top of their division in 2017. As you can see, their AFC Conference slate
is going to be tougher this year, and they might not hit the double-digit win
total this year.

Out-of-Conference Games

Just like against an opposing in-conference division, each team will have to
play a division from the other conference. Sticking with our example of the
Steelers above, they will play against the NFC South in 2018. Remember, this is
the division that sent 3 teams to the playoffs last year. One of those games
will be on the road at New Orleans, which is a very tough place for opposing
teams to play. Once again, the 2018 schedule doesn’t look very favorable for
Pittsburgh.

How To Bet Nfl Win Totals This Week

The Jets went 5-7 last year in the AFC, but went 0-4
against the NFC South.

Out-of-conference games are set up so that a division from the AFC will play
a division from the NFC once every 4 years. This means that there’s not as much
familiarity as with in-conference and divisional games. The Jets were a perfect
example of how a winless record against the NFC prevented them from a more
successful season.

Short Weeks

Short weeks refer to when a team has to play on a Sunday and then play again
on Thursday, or they play on a Monday and have to play on a Sunday. This means
the team has fewer days to rest and prepare, which could have a significant
impact on their chances of winning.

Last year, Kansas City had a Sunday game against the Steelers and lost. They
then had to turn around and play the Raiders on a Thursday night game and lost.
Two weeks later, they won on a Monday night game against the Broncos, but then
lost the following Sunday at Dallas. As you can see, these short weeks weren’t
kind to KC.

Keep an eye out for which teams have the most short weeks, as this could have
an impact on their season win totals.

Lots of Traveling

Traveling all over the country for away games can have a detrimental effect
on some teams. It’s common knowledge that west coast teams traveling to the east
coast have a harder time winning. A perfect example of this would be the Oakland
Raiders. In their 4 trips to the east coast during the 2017 season, the Raiders
went 1-3. Furthermore, they also lost their game in Mexico City, which was a
drastic change in elevation.

Keep an eye out for a team’s away schedule, as it will show how much they
have to travel and where to.

Home and Away Games

Speaking of away games, most teams tend to have losing away records and
winning home records. Of the 16 teams in the AFC, only the Steelers and the
Patriots had winning records on the road. Furthermore, only 3 AFC teams had
losing home records. The other 13 teams went at least .500 or better. In the
NFC, only 4 teams had losing records at home.

Make sure that you examine the matchups at home and on the road. This will
have an effect on a team’s potential win/loss record at home and away. Sticking
with the Steelers, we know that they play at the Saints in 2018. They will also
have tough away games against Baltimore, Denver, and Jacksonville. However, they
are fortunate to have home games against tough opponents like the Patriots,
Chiefs, Falcons, and Panthers.

Come up with a Win Total Range

By now, you should have an idea of how many games you think a team will win.
But instead of settling on that specific number, you should create a range with
a plus/minus of 1 game. For example, if you think the Bengals will win 8 games,
then set your range at 7-9 wins.

Let’s dig deeper on how a range can help you with these types of football
wagers.

After looking at the Steelers in several examples above, let’s continue using
them to further this point. I believe Pittsburgh will win 10 games this season.
So my range would be 9-11 wins. The 2018 line for the Steelers is set at 10.5.
This does not give me much room for error, as the line is at the upper end of me
range.

Keep in mind that I set this range based on Pittsburgh’s tough schedule, lack
of offseason moves, moves by other teams in the division, and their average wins
over the last 3 years. With that said, I don’t feel that betting on the Steelers
to eclipse the 10.5 mark would be a smart wager. Additionally, since I think
they can win 10 games, it’s too close to the 10.5 line to pick the under.
Therefore, I would stay away from Pittsburgh altogether.

Avoid the Shotgun Approach

The shotgun approach refers to placing numerous wagers on season win totals
without any real strategy. It’s the idea that your chances of winning will go up
with more bets. Unfortunately, this is not true. In fact, when it comes to
season win totals, less is better. Avoid the temptation of placing numerous
wagers on season win totals and really focus on a few that have the best chance
of winning.

Limit your Wagers

Keep in mind, however much you place on season win totals, you will not have
for the regular season. Since we feel that your football betting strategy should
be diverse, by including different types of football wagers, it’s best to limit
the amount of money you place on season win totals. Typically, experienced
bettors will limit their season win totals to a maximum of 5% of their bankroll.
This allows for a healthy amount to be placed on a preseason bet, while still
allowing for the majority of your bankroll to be used during the regular season.

Remember, don’t tie up all of your bankroll for the entire season on these
win total wagers. If you do, then you will most likely miss out on weekly wagers
throughout the season.

Shop Around for Best Lines

One common theme that we always preach is shopping around for the best lines.
In the case of season win totals, a 1/2 game could make all of the difference. If
you remember from our example above, we discussed how the Arizona Cardinals had
a line of 8 wins in May of 2017. The line went up to 8.5 just before the regular
season started. Ultimately, the Cardinals finished the season with 8 wins. So if
you bet on the over any time before September, then you would have lost because
of that 1/2 game difference in the line.

It’s the same concept when shopping for lines. If you believed that the
Cardinals were going to win more than 8 games in 2017, then you should’ve
shopped around to see if you could have found an online bookmaker who had the
over/under at 8 wins, instead of the 8.5 line that we used from a popular site.
In this case, you would’ve pushed instead of losing your wager. But what if you
shopped around and found a betting site that offered the Cardinals at 7.5 wins?
You would have won your bet.

It’s important to take the time to shop around so that you give yourself the
best chance of winning and finding the most value.

Find Value (Look at the Odds)

There are many bettors who feel that season win totals don’t offer much
value. In some sense, they’re right. Not all of the lines will offer value.
However, if you take the time to really examine the lines, implement all of the
tips above, and look at the odds, then you will definitely find a few value
bets.

Speaking of odds, make sure they are worth the wager. For example, the Chiefs
have an over/under of 9 wins this season. The under is currently set at -175
odds. That means you would have to risk $175 to win $100.

KC has averaged 11 wins per season over the last 3 years, so some people
might think that the 9-win over/under is a steal. However, if you paid attention
to their offseason moves and saw what other teams in the division have done,
then you would know that 9 wins will be tough for them to attain.

How Is Nfl Winning Percentage Calculated

KC traded their starting quarterback, Alex Smith, and plan on going with a
young QB who only played one game during his rookie season last year. They also
got rid of their top corner Marcus Peters and don’t have a player who can lock
down an opponent’s number-1 receiver. So the under looks more appealing due to
these factors. Bookmakers know this and have cranked up the odds to -175 in
order to offset the under action. In my opinion, the Chiefs are an unknown
commodity right now, and risking that much money isn’t worth the wager. It does
not provide value.

Let’s take a look at the Cleveland Browns as an example for finding value.

In the spring of 2017, the Browns had an over/under of 4.5 wins on the
season. By time the preseason had finished, the Browns’ line went up to 5
because Cleveland finished 4-0.

How To Bet Nfl Win Totals 2020

If you watched Cleveland in 2015 and 2016, you would’ve seen how terrible
they were. In fact, they had one of the worst offenses in the league for both
years. Additionally, none of their offseason moves made them significantly
better prior to 2015 or 2016. And playing in the AFC North with 2 perennial
playoff teams in the Ravens and Steelers only makes it that much hard for
Cleveland to win many games. Over the last 5 seasons, the Browns have gone 5-25
in their division. In fact, they haven’t won a divisional game since 2015.

So it wasn’t a surprise to many pundits that Cleveland only won 3 total games
in 2015 and just 1 game in 2016.

By time the 2017 regular season was near, the Browns’ wins total line went up
to 5 wins, and the odds were -125. That means you would have to bet $125 to win
$100. The bookmakers viewed the Browns’ perfect preseason as a reason to bump
the line up to an over/under of 5 wins. I saw the Browns’ perfect preseason, and
bump in the line, as a great value bet for taking the under. Cleveland has been
a bad team for a long time. Until they actually start having consistent winning
seasons, I believe they will continue to vastly underperform. The Browns would
go on to finish the 2017 season with no wins. They became the second team in the
history of the NFL to go 0-16. My under bet of 5 wins easily hit on the Browns.

Heading into the 2018 season, the Browns have an over/under of 4.5 wins and
-120 odds. Once again, I don’t believe they will win that many games, and I plan
on taking the under. I believe the Browns will win 3 games, which puts my range
at 2-4 wins. Although the 4.5 line is close to my range’s top end, it’s still
worth the bet in my opinion.

I typically take the approach of waiting until at least a few preseason games
have finished before betting on season win totals. So if the Browns do well in
the preseason again and their line goes up to 5 wins for 2018, then I will be
sitting pretty, as this is a full game above the high end of my range.

When identifying value, try to follow these suggestions:

How To Bet On Nfl Odds

• Thoroughly analyze the
  data for each team
• Come up with your win
  total range for each team
• Compare your win total
  range with the actual lines and try to give yourself margin for error
• Look at the odds
  attached to each line and make sure they’re worth betting

What Is the Public Saying?

Typically, teams that get a lot of media coverage can really influence
inexperienced bettors. This media coverage and favorable public opinion can also
influence the lines that bookmakers set. In our above example with the Browns,
they have been in the media constantly due to several reasons:

• Made some big offseason
  moves
• Had 2 of the top 4
  picks in the NFL Draft
• Are expected to add
  more playmakers

I believe the media attention they have received has influenced the listed
over/under of 4.5 wins for 2018. In reality, we’re still talking about a team
that went winless last year and has only won 4 games in the last 3 years. I’m in
the camp that believes the value is in the under for the Browns in 2018.

Nfl Season Win Totals

Keep an eye on other teams that are highly talked-about during the offseason
and see how their lines shift throughout the next few months.